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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still